Wednesday, October 7, 2009

my dad

Well, just had a call from my dad.  He still thinks this isn't going to affect him or his neighbor and in fact thinks he isn't going to be affected much.  "It isn't going to affect my standard of living."

He doesn't think this time will be anything like the last great depression.

So now I have to write something to explain why he is absolutely right.

It's going to be much worse.

It's not a question of if there will be a depression, only when, how bad it will be and how long it will last.

I'm not going to make this a big long thing, at least I hope not.  Just the basics.  Found this stuff by googling "why this time is going to be worse than the great depression sept 2009"

From May09 Washington's Blog

"The following experts have said that the economic crisis could be worse than the Great Depression:
And see this, this and this.

And many experts believe that we have already been in at least a mild depression.

When these people say it could be worse, what they really mean is it will be worse.

There are so many things to choose from and to list them all would be horrendous. But here is a stab at it. 

6 fundamentals of why will be worse:

  1. Overvalued Real Estate.
  2. Total U.S. Credit
  3. Explosion of Derivatives
  4. Dow-Gold Ratio
  5. Global Bubbles
  6. Collapsing Bretton Woods II
My additions:

7. World Trade (Oct 7th - Paul Krugman)
8. US Bankrupt.  Fed Gov, States, FDIC, FHA, CC Companies, Major Banks, etc.

"Household credit is shrinking...Profits are shrinking...
Employment is shrinking...
Housing values are shrinking...
The wage base is shrinking...  

Treasuries are the last bubble

A depression ends when it has done its work. It must correct mistakes. It must punish errors. It must destroy the bubble economy...and the mindset of the Bubble Era. Only then can new real, sustainable growth begin again."  Bill Bonner.

(His facts are accurate)

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