My thoughts on why I think Oct-Nov, maybe Dec, is possible time frame for the next leg down or "second wave."
First of all I don't believe in coincidences, and especially not when you have this many.
I think there will be a series of crisis that will unfold and allow congress to take big steps in moving their agenda forward.
For example, with ~50% unemployment no one is going to object to single payer government run health care.
So why Oct-Nov-Dec for next phase?
1) The "Swine Flu Pandemic." I still think this is governments way of giving ample warning to citizens of the world something is coming that will destroy economies, the chain is only as strong as its weakest link and so on. There is no other common sense answer that explains what the WHO has been saying about the upcoming "second wave" of "Swine Flu." My mother, who has believed in and trusted the WHO all her life thinks they are "stupid", "mistaken," or just doesn't care. I guess that is a lot simpler to believe that just using plain old common sense to explain what they are doing and why.
2) Fed releases Sept 09 numbers on approximately Oct 17th along with numerous other reports, earnings etc that have to come out in October.
3) Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and others are getting more shrill, while new voices are chiming in. Faber said the other day, when the day of reckoning comes it will wipe out himself, Bloomberg and everyone else. That day could be tomorrow, in three to six months, 5 or 10 years but that day is inevitable he said. Jim Rogers said he is no longer buying anything and there will be a currency crisis. Gore Vidal on Sep30 said the US will have a dictatorship soon. This list is exhaustive.
4) Jeff Immelt's letter to GE shareholders dated Feb 09. Why warn shareholders of a "reset economy" years in advance?
5) Nassim Taleb testimony to congress on "Capitalism 2.0." They are laying the groundwork for a new system as I write this. If this was years away or they intended to maintain the status quo why do it now and why do it at all?
6) Igor Panarin's prediction his book “The Crash of America” will be out of date by November.
7) Little things like Stephen Colbert on his Sept 23rd show:
Colbert interviews A.J. Jacobs, author.
A.J. - I actually think you should do an experiment, I think you should...
Colbert - I am
A.J. - You are? oh alright
Colbert - Yes, its called changing the world.
Michael Moore goes on Jay Leno to talk about "Capitalism, A love Story" and sings "Times they are a changing" with such catchy phrases as "don't criticize what you can't understand." It was also replayed on Larry King live, trying to get maximum exposure and fair warning.
Margaret Atwood releases a book called "The Year of The Flood" on September 22nd about a disaster and how people deal with it.
Discovery Channel is running a series called "The Colony" about how to survive after a disaster
HGTV is running a series on how to turn an empty loft into a complete living space using only recycled materials.
Hollywood movies: "9," "2012," "The Road," "The Book of Eli" and others. All about the end of the world as we know it.
Bill O'Reilly says "we'll know in November" whether Obama stimulus has worked and what all his czars are for.
Glenn Beck releases "Arguing with idiots" after "Common Sense." Basically saying you can't argue with people who won't use common sense.
On Glenn Beck show today, Oct 6th 2009, Glenn laid out what is happening, why it can't be fixed and where this is going. "Our leaders now know it will implode if we continue down this road. Well in the Soviet Union they drafted a document and transformed the Soviet model."
There are so many little examples, and too many of them to be a coincidence.
8) Then you have the tin-foil and semi tin-foil stuff like webbot , reinhardt, LaRouche, Jim Sinclair and Martin Weiss all saying Oct/Nov, end of October timeframe.
I think there are so many possible triggers for a "second wave" it is pointless to speculate what the trigger will be . After watching Schumer and Cornyn on ABC News yesterday though, I think what they are really saying is the next wave will not start in the US. Maybe it will be this "Banks brace for Latvia's collapse" There are just too many possibilities.
I will probably add to this post and list as stuff comes up and hits me in the face...