Friday, October 9, 2009

If Tarp doesn't work, we all go over a cliff

This clip is from April 20th 09



Now we have this news yesterday
"Thirty-three TARP recipients missed a scheduled dividend payment to taxpayers last month, according to the Treasury Department, including 18 banks that missed a payment for the first time. It’s a powerful indication that the U.S. banking system remains troubled."

And this
"According to weekly figures provided by the Federal Reserve, total loans at commercial banks have fallen at a 19% annual rate over the past three months, while loans to businesses have dropped at a 28% annualized pace."

And this
"Small Banks Fail at Growing Rate, Straining F.D.I.C."

And this
"Precipitous Drop In State Tax Collections"

And this
"Steep Losses Pose Crisis for Pensions"

Congress and The Fed continue to play "extend and pretend" the economy will magically recover as if nothing ever happened and ignore reality.

Garth has a great post today showing the Canadian economy going down the toilet.  So does americacanada.blogspot.com

Corporate Communism

Love these clips



Garth Turner

I don't know anyone in the main stream of Canadian media other than Garth Turner who is telling it like it is.  Upfront, in your face facts.  Along with a lot of humor, anecdotes and great writing.

Garth Turner, a Canadian hero.



End of the Republican Party if HealthCare passes

Ann Coulter Says It Is "the End of the Republican Party" if ObamaCare Passes Sept23rd 09

Micheal Moore

I almost can't believe what's in Moore's interview with Hannity.  I've watched Hannity a few times, and out of the entire Fox lineup, he plays the part up more than anyone else I've seen.  Never watched the morning shows.  But out of Glenn Beck, Bill O'Reilly and Hannity, Hannity plays the froth at the mouth, red-meat Reagan conservative role with relish.  Not in this interview.

First of all he gave Micheal a huge amount of airtime, an hour.  Then he let Micheal make every single one of his points, and he let Micheal demolish every single one of his points.  It was stunning.  I wish I knew what Hannity's audience thought of it.  I was shocked. 1st part aired Oct 6th





Michael Moore and Hannity - Aired Oct 9th 2009



What happened to Hannity? See this for what Hannity is usually like

Some other MMoore Interviews:







Xmas starts early at Walmart

On Sept 25th, Walmart annouced it would drop prices of ten brand-name toys to $10 every week between now and Christmas. 

This year's Christmas shopper is going to be selective and value-conscious like never before,” Jim Thompson, Wal-Mart Canada's senior vice-president of merchandise and operations, said. That's why we are starting our Christmas toy price cuts earlier than ever, across more toys than ever before.”

Many shoppers plan to buy items on sale (74 per cent) to help stay on budget, and many expect to spread their shopping over a longer period of time to avoid large post-Christmas bills,” Wal-Mart said.

Looking at real estate sales anyone would think that Vancouver is in the midst of a economic boom. Bidding wars, people paying over a million dollars to purchase decrepit shacks and sheds on tiny plots of land.  Real estate in Vancouver has become a gold mine again for sellers with crack addict buyers.  Property where I live that hasn't sold for over six months or more has sold.  New listings are gone within days.  Panic buying fueled by cheap easy credit from the CMHC.

I suspect even Walmart knows this is a catastrophe in the making.

The intriguing thing about Walmart dropping toy prices so low and so far in advance of Christmas is what does it mean?  What is Walmart telling us beyond what they are they are saying?

It almost sounds like Walmart wants to clear its inventory of toys before Christmas even gets here.

What does Walmart know that the average Canadian consumer doesn't? 

I think what it means is Walmart expects Christmas '09 to be a disaster for retail sales.   Perhaps they expect by the time Christmas rolls around, people are not going to be thinking about Christmas anymore or that their shopping habits will be so sharply curtailed that it is going to have a devastating effect.  They want to do whatever they can to get people to shop for Christmas and buy gifts for their kids well in advance so that families and their children still have a Christmas.

The local evening news yesterday, Oct 8th, ran a piece about Walmart dropping toy prices to $10, almost encouraging people to get out and shop early for bargains while they can...Feels like they are hyping the sale as much as real estate, as much as the Swine Flu and in advance of the Second Wave.

Sometimes I feel like I'm the only one trying to connect the dots.

Fortunately have access to the Internet, so I know I'm not alone.



wilful denial

I sent my dad an email listing six fundamentals of the economy that are worse now than during the Great Depression along with a couple of graphs demonstrating this.  I also sent him recent article, Oct 07, where Paul Krugman said that world trade, which I didn't include as one of the six, is also worse. So that makes at least seven economic fundamentals that are worse now than during the Great Depression.

"When it comes to international trade, actually it’s not the Great Depression, it’s worse,”

Both my parents are raving Paul Krugman fans.  They think his word is gospel, or at least they used to...Krugman has been pretty upbeat up until now, and like all the other talking heads out there he chooses his words very carefully.  So I asked my dad, did you read the article? Yes he replied.  Well what do you think.  Well I have to see what he is referring to. Ah..trade, a fundamental of the world economy?  Well I have to check the context.  The context?  How much more context to you need?

"Paul Krugman won the Nobel Prize in economics last year for his work on international trade — so the guy knows what he’s talking about when it comes to this subject. And he’s worried."

dad...have to check the context and what he means by that
me....he means trade, a fundamental of the world economy
dad...ah...
me....Paul Krugman says it's worse than the Great Depression
dad...well Krugman has always been a fan of Obama
me....do you believe him?
dad...ah...
me.....I mean you either take him at his word or you don't.
dad...don't start with me...

At this point my dad goes into defense mode and I stop pressing.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

my dad

Well, just had a call from my dad.  He still thinks this isn't going to affect him or his neighbor and in fact thinks he isn't going to be affected much.  "It isn't going to affect my standard of living."

He doesn't think this time will be anything like the last great depression.

So now I have to write something to explain why he is absolutely right.

It's going to be much worse.

It's not a question of if there will be a depression, only when, how bad it will be and how long it will last.

I'm not going to make this a big long thing, at least I hope not.  Just the basics.  Found this stuff by googling "why this time is going to be worse than the great depression sept 2009"

From May09 Washington's Blog

"The following experts have said that the economic crisis could be worse than the Great Depression:
And see this, this and this.

And many experts believe that we have already been in at least a mild depression.
"


When these people say it could be worse, what they really mean is it will be worse.

There are so many things to choose from and to list them all would be horrendous. But here is a stab at it. 

6 fundamentals of why will be worse:

  1. Overvalued Real Estate.
  2. Total U.S. Credit
  3. Explosion of Derivatives
  4. Dow-Gold Ratio
  5. Global Bubbles
  6. Collapsing Bretton Woods II
My additions:

7. World Trade (Oct 7th - Paul Krugman)
8. US Bankrupt.  Fed Gov, States, FDIC, FHA, CC Companies, Major Banks, etc.

















"Household credit is shrinking...Profits are shrinking...
Employment is shrinking...
Housing values are shrinking...
The wage base is shrinking...  

Treasuries are the last bubble

A depression ends when it has done its work. It must correct mistakes. It must punish errors. It must destroy the bubble economy...and the mindset of the Bubble Era. Only then can new real, sustainable growth begin again."  Bill Bonner.


(His facts are accurate)

Common Sense and Brainwashing

After watching "How to Brainwash a Nation" it explains an awful lot about why both my parents are incapable of using common sense. They are both brainwashed. They would deny it of course, but the truth is they don't have any idea it has been done to them therefore in their minds it can't be true.

They would think they are too intelligent to be "brainwashed" and couldn't have been done to them unless they were in a lab.  Well, I can tell you from first hand experience in dealing with both of them, as smart as they are, they have both been successfully brainwashed. This clip explains how it was done, accurately describes their reactions perfectly and their inability to use common sense is proof they have been successfully brainwashed.

In any discussion with me on any contentious issue that could be settled with facts or common sense, neither of my parents have ever been capable of counter arguments supported by facts. Their counter argument always deteriorates to "stupid," "mistake," "i don't care," "i don't believe it," or simply starts with one, or all of these, and never budges. They are incapable of producing facts to support their argument because such facts don't exist, and they are incapable of using common sense to support their argument because they have been brainwashed.

So here are two classic examples of discussions/arguments I have had with my parents over issues/questions that I think would have been easily settled using plain old common sense, or settled using facts and evidence. In both of these cases I got nowhere and neither of my parents could believe anything other than what they had been brainwashed into thinking was true.

1) Bobby Jindal

In Feb09 Barack Obama gave a speech to joint session of congress that was broadcast live on national TV. Following Obama, Bobby Jindal gave the republican response, also on live national TV, as is customary for the minority party.

After listening to, and then reading the transcript to make sure I wasn't dreaming, this was my common sense reaction to his speech:

Every single word was carefully chosen, every sentence and paragraph carefully constructed and articulated for maximum effect to its intended audience, the viewer.

This is my parents (both of them) summary reactions to Bobby Jindal's speech: "stupid" "mistake" "i don't care"

Here are some more detailed reactions (paraphrasing): "I don't know that the Bobby Jindal speech was live, I have no way of knowing that." "I have no idea if he wrote it alone or had help, for all I know he wrote it himself and no one else ever read it or had any input." "He didn't care what anybody thought about his speech nor did he think anyone would check it for accuracy." "He didn't think anyone would pay any attention to it or bother to dissect his speech." "He thought no one would be watching, he could get away with it and wasn't thinking who his audience was." "He didn't think critics, commentators, analysts, acedemics, historians, observers, voters, political junkies or in fact anyone in the entire world or the universe itself would listen or be interested in it." "He thought he was talking to himself." Or the classic, Jindal is "an arrogant indian."


In his office at the Louisiana Governors Mansion, Gov. Bobby Jindal chats with staff members while working on the Republican Party response to Pres. Barack Obama's speech Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, in Baton Rouge, La. Jindal will give the Republican Party's response to President Barack Obama's first address to Congress Tuesday night. The Louisiana governor's speech will be nationally televised. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)


In other words, my parents common sense tells them that Bobby Jindal is the first politician in history who did not choose his words thoughtfully, carefully, throughly and with extreme care as who the audience was and how they would interpret and take meaning from his words.

Jindal's speech was described by David Brooks (paraphrasing) as 'Worst speech in history of democracy.'

It also had outright lies, storytelling, bad cliches and innuendo in a career ending self destruction speech. (see this this this this this this ...endless...)



My common sense tells me every single word in Bobby Jindal's speech was carefully chosen, every sentence and paragraph carefully constructed and articulated for maximum effect to its intended audience, the viewer. And what was the effect? 'Worst speech in history of democracy.' So what conclusion, using simple common sense, can we draw from this?

Bobby Jindal gave the worst speech in history of democracy deliberately to discredit himself and the Republican Party.

And my parents common sense? Non-existent. Why?

Brainwashed.

To be fair, I had some detailed written discussions with my mother over this speech and she did come up with an elaborate storytelling parable answer to try and explain Bobby Jindal speech. The problem with her storytelling parable as she well knows, is that Bobby Jindal told a bold faced lie in this speech. Jindal knew it was a lie when he told it, and my mother knows it. So her storytelling parable explanation boiled down to "stupid," 'mistake," "i don't care," or "i don't believe it."  To this day that has not changed.



2) Money=Debt

This issue/question is one that has yet to see either of my parents provide facts and evidence to support their belief that money<>debt.

When I tried to explain to my father why money=debt I was told I was "stupid," "mistaken," or needed to take some economics classes and learn something as I clearly had no idea what I was talking about. This is a common retreat for my father "take some economics classes."

To the purists out there, when I say "money" I mean FRN's or any fiat currency equivalent. I'm not talking about value, wealth, assets or anything else. Strictly money as fiat currency. No other definition or meaning of money. Money as the fiat currency you pay taxes with, that money.

Last time I checked we still pay taxes in fiat currency, not sticks of bamboo, rocks, matchsticks or anything else. Our government here in Canada does not accept trades, barter, promises to pay, IOU's, diamonds, cigarettes, pencils or coconuts as mediums of exchange for payment of taxes. It only accepts its fiat currency, money, as payment for taxes.

Totally clear on what I mean by money?

Had to clear that up because my dad loves to start any discussion about money=debt with "well we could use matchsticks as money, we just choose to use money" or "if I had a 1,000 pencils worth a dollar each thats the equivalent of having a $1,000.00 dollars" or any other number of irrelevant distractions from the issue.

When the government allows you to start paying taxes in matchsticks, pencils or bits of wood, you let me know and then maybe how many matchsticks, pencils or bits of wood you have, can make or can gather, might be relevant.

So, this is how I try to explain to my father why money=debt.

Money is primarily created in only 2 ways

a) It is created by a central bank/treasury issuing IOU's
b) It is created by private banks issuing loans.

Both of these methods of money creation creates debt equal to the amount of money being created, plus interest.

money=debt

The third way money is created is through "Quantitative Easing"

c) The central bank creates money to buy treasury IOU's and instead of creating offsetting debt, instead just creates an entry on its balance sheet.

Now, trying to get my parents to see how money is created by using simple common sense is a gargantuan and basically impossible task. They have seen "money as debt" 1 and 2, discussed it with the author, Paul Grignon, discussed it with me, along with having read numerous articles I have sent including the federal reserves own "Modern Money Mechanics" explaining how and why money=debt. I have also sent them a long list of quotes including this one from the federal reserve “[Banks] do not really pay out loans from the money they receive as deposits. If they did this, no additional money would be created. What they do when they make loans is to accept promissory notes in exchange for credits to the borrowers' transaction accounts." As well as many quotes on the nature of money from people throughout history like Napoleon, John Adams, Henry Ford, Esra Pound etc. (The only sources I have ever found that disputes the fact money=debt is a publication from a private bank or something written by ill-informed, uneducated ignorant sheeple. I have never found anything that disputes on the basis of facts that money=debt as detailed in "Modern Money Mechanics" written by the federal reserve.)

Still not a dent.

In spite of overwhelming evidence, logic, reasoning, explanation, history, they mentally refuse to apply their common sense. Why? Brainwashing.

They have been successfully brainwashed all their lives to believe that money is something other than what it really is.

And the irony? They are both going to read this and it won't change a thing.

They will likely say something like "don't expect us just to agree with you." I don't, but until today, I did expect that common sense would prevail. Now at least I know why it never will. They have both been been brainwashed.

Monday, October 5, 2009

October - November 2009

My thoughts on why I think Oct-Nov, maybe Dec, is possible time frame for the next leg down or "second wave."

First of all I don't believe in coincidences, and especially not when you have this many.


I think there will be a series of crisis that will unfold and allow congress to take big steps in moving their agenda forward.

For example, with ~50% unemployment no one is going to object to single payer government run health care.

So why Oct-Nov-Dec for next phase?  

1) The "Swine Flu Pandemic."  I still think this is governments way of giving ample warning to citizens of the world something is coming that will destroy economies, the chain is only as strong as its weakest link and so on.  There is no other common sense answer that explains what the WHO has been saying about the upcoming "second wave" of "Swine Flu."  My mother, who has believed in and trusted the WHO all her life thinks they are "stupid", "mistaken," or just doesn't care.   I guess that is a lot simpler to believe that just using plain old common sense to explain what they are doing and why.

2) Fed releases Sept 09 numbers on approximately Oct 17th along with numerous other reports, earnings etc that have to come out in October.

3) Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and others are getting more shrill, while new voices are chiming in.  Faber said the other day, when the day of reckoning comes it will wipe out himself, Bloomberg and everyone else.  That day could be tomorrow, in three to six months, 5 or 10 years but that day is inevitable he said.   Jim Rogers said he is no longer buying anything and there will be a currency crisis.  Gore Vidal on Sep30 said the US will have a dictatorship soon. This list is exhaustive.

4) Jeff Immelt's letter to GE shareholders dated Feb 09.  Why warn shareholders of a "reset economy" years in advance?

5) Nassim Taleb testimony to congress on "Capitalism 2.0."  They are laying the groundwork for a new system as I write this.  If this was years away or they intended to maintain the status quo why do it now and why do it at all?

6) Igor Panarin's prediction his book The Crash of America” will be out of date by November.

7) Little things like Stephen Colbert on his Sept 23rd show:

Colbert interviews A.J. Jacobs, author.

A.J. - I actually think you should do an experiment, I think you should...

Colbert - I am

A.J. - You are? oh alright

Colbert - Yes, its called changing the world.


Michael Moore goes on Jay Leno to talk about "Capitalism, A love Story"  and sings "Times they are a changing" with such catchy phrases as "don't criticize what you can't understand."  It was also replayed on Larry King live, trying to get maximum exposure and fair warning.

Margaret Atwood releases a book called "The Year of The Flood"  on September 22nd about a disaster and how people deal with it.

Discovery Channel is running a series called "The Colony" about how to survive after a disaster

HGTV is running a series on how to turn an empty loft into a complete living space using only recycled materials.

Hollywood movies: "9," "2012," "The Road," "The Book of Eli" and others.  All about the end of the world as we know it.

Bill O'Reilly says "we'll know in November" whether Obama stimulus has worked and what all his czars are for.

Glenn Beck releases "Arguing with idiots" after "Common Sense." Basically saying you can't argue with people who won't use common sense.

On Glenn Beck show today, Oct 6th 2009, Glenn laid out what is happening, why it can't be fixed and where this is going.  "Our leaders now know it will implode if we continue down this road. Well in the Soviet Union they drafted a document and transformed the Soviet model."



There are so many little examples, and too many of them to be a coincidence.

8) Then you have the tin-foil and semi tin-foil stuff like webbot , reinhardt, LaRouche, Jim Sinclair and Martin Weiss all saying Oct/Nov, end of October timeframe.


I think there are so many possible triggers for a "second wave" it is pointless to speculate what the trigger will be .  After watching Schumer and Cornyn on ABC News yesterday though, I think what they are really saying is the next wave will not start in the US.  Maybe it will be this "Banks brace for Latvia's collapse"  There are just too many possibilities.


I will probably add to this post and list as stuff comes up and hits me in the face...

.

"I don't care"

Well, I have the flu.  Swine flu, common flu, whatever it is I have it.  Feeling pretty miserable, headaches, body aches, can't stop blowing my nose, the whole bit and caboodle. 

I try to lie down and sleep but can't.  I keep running over these conversations in my head; I can rest but not sleep.  So here are some of my thoughts while under the influence of the flu.


I keep coming back to my parents.

Every time I show them something or point out something I find odd, I keep expecting them to come back with a common sense explanation.  They don't, they never do.  It doesn't matter what or how glaring it is, their explanation is always "well he/she is stupid" or "they made a mistake" or "I don't care."  One of these three answers is how they explain everything I point out to them.  They get quite excited and animated with the "I don't care" answer. "I have more important things to think about"  things like tiling, toilet, tea and tulips (tulips being gardening.)

They adamantly refuse to look at anything and come up with a common sense answer.  I can't say they have lost their capability to apply common sense, they just refuse to apply it.  If a common sense answer questions their values or beliefs they put up a mental wall and will only say "stupid" "mistake" or "I don't care"

Personally I find it extraordinary.  My parents are both extremely intelligent and successful, have had a concern and interest in the world around them for as long as I can remember, but when it comes to something that questions their beliefs they shut down.  They can't believe that a simple common sense answer makes the most sense, nor will they ever admit it.

Part of me believes they don't care and part of me doesn't want to.  Michael Tsarion in "Architects of Control" said don't think you have to save people.  You can't.  They have to come to a realization themselves and on their own.

Michael gets pretty deep, but a much, much simpler communicator is Glenn Beck.  Glenn has two books out, "Common Sense" and "Arguing with Idiots."  Glenn is saying the same thing Michael is, in as plain and simple language as possible in a valiant and admirable effort to get through to people.  

You can't argue with people who refuse to use common sense.


Found this clip that I think explains why my parents and others refuse to use common sense


How To Brainwash A Nation.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

Canada to lead global recovery: IMF

Is this a joke?

If Canada is expected to lead the developed world's "global recovery" we are in trouble.

Always amazes me how people can say things with a straight face, as if by saying the words can make it true.

Or is this something else?

It is farcical and ludicrous that Canada could or can lead a global recovery.  So what is the IMF really saying here?

Ladies and Gentlemen, please fasten your seatbelts and put your head between your legs.

We regret to inform you we will not be pulling out of this nosedive.