I sent my mother an email linking to two articles from the same source, the Vancouver Sun, published one day apart. One headline reads Vancouver home prices expected to jump 7.2 per cent in 2010 and sites as its source realty firm Royal LePage. The other article, published a day later, has as its headline Canada's real estate market too hot, say analysts and cites various analysts/commentators.
You have to understand I did this deliberately. My parents are extremely suspicious of anything I say so I have to be extremely careful to not appear biased. To me this seemed straight forward. Same source, different perspectives.
I asked my mother, which story was credible? To me seemed obvious and foolishly I thought obvious to her as well. Her reply? "I read the two pieces from the Sun and didn’t really see a big conflict."
At the end of the second piece, the article ends by quoting Will Strange, professor of real estate and urban economics at the Rotman School of Management who states "don't buy it because you think the price is going to go up." Foolishly I thought this contradicted Royal LePage prediction "Metro Vancouver's home prices will inflate another 7.2 per cent this year."
The really sad part in my mother's reply is this "but if you can afford it, property is still a good bet. Don’t buy to sell in the short term because prices are likely to drop but buy to live in because property will continue to be a strong investment."
I suppose I am just naive and continue to be when it comes to my parents. To paraphrase Jared Diamond Societies fail because they're unprepared, and will be in denial till it's too late.
I just don't understand how my parents can't see the writing on the wall. The evidence is everywhere and growing. Every week and every month it gets worse, not better. I realize a big part of the problem is government and main street media deliberate campaign of disinformation. My parents believe anything the media tells them.
Nonsense like this in the Vancouver Sun "Canada's not headed for anything similar to the U.S. subprime mess because lending standards here are higher."
Standards are higher? Rubbish. Whispers has a great post up yesterday that rips this to shreds as Canada is in a worse sub-prime bubble than the US ever was. This is been carefully documented by Jonathan Tonge who has done extensive analysis of CMHC reports over the last year and by albertabubbleblog.blogspot.com and Garth Turner. Canadians debt to income ratio surpases the US at 142% to 135%. Savings are lower, pensions are lower, the list goes on and on.
The bigger picture comes from what is happening in the US, Europe and the rest of the world. As I've said before, Canada is being kept insulated and protected by an artificial bubble created by Mark Carney who has confirmed that the Harper government will keep it in place for as long as they can. This is great for Canada and Canadians. I am all in favor of keeping us sheltered for as long as possible and applaud Carney for doing it. Why make Canadians suffer if they don't have to and can do something about it? We are being protected just like China is sheltering its citizens.
What is objectionable is the media manipulation of the masses. However this is the norm around the world so should not expect any different in Canada. It only proves that people are gullible and easily manipulated because they are unable and unwilling to investigate and think for themselves. Eventually people will realize they have been lied to and deceived on a scale unprecedented in history. Greater than the Nazi Germany propaganda machine. (History will prove this)
Societies fail because they're unprepared, and will be in denial till it's too late.
I wrote a lot about "Swine Flu" being a metaphor for depression/collapse etc, it might also be a metaphor for WAKE UP Government and the mass media cannot be trusted. FoxNews, MetroUK, SunUK, AlJazeera and others have all come out saying Swine Flu was a "false pandemic" and investigations are under way in Europe by the Parliamentary Health Committee while HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius warned as recently as Dec 18th of a "third wave".
Only time will tell what "Swine Flu" is really a metaphor for.
But I digress...my point is I cannot understand why my parents have this blind faith and optimism that things will go on as before.
I could understand if Canada was on another planet, wholly self sufficient and the internet did not exist, but we do not. We all live on the same planet, exist in a global financial economy with the United States as its linchpin and have access to the internet, which allows us to source accurate information and not have to accept corporate government media as truth.
I will never forget the November elections of 2008 and what was broadcast on the MSM starting on Oct 31st 6:00PM EST. I will never forget that CNN on Nov 4th, election day, broadcast live around the world that they were interviewing reporters who were appearing as holograms in the CNN studio. They have never repeated such claims since.
Let me get back to my point...
Every week and month that goes by the situation get worse and worse. There is no recovery.
The issue for me is that my parents can't see it, don't know it or believe Canada will come out ok. This is fiction. Fantasy that belies facts, evidence and reasoning. The only reason they cling to this belief is brainwashing, which I written about previously.
Due to the nature of my work, I have more time on my hands than my parents or even most people do. Most people get snippets of news from the main street media and over time believe what they are being told and treat it as gospel. On this blog I have subscribed and linked to a number of sources that I review on a daily basis that are outside the MSM. I don't take any of them at face value and only accept it if verified by another source. I made the mistake of accepting one at face value only to later find it was inaccurate so will not repeat that again.
What is clear though is the world economy is getting worse, not better. The MSM spins everything to the positive and leaves out the negative or even leaves out additional facts altogether. For example, China's exports rose in December, this is spun as good news by the MSM. What they leave out is the Germany and other countries exports dropped. The MSM deliberately leaves out that any increase in China's exports is coming at cost of other countries manufacturing.
The world economy is not growing, it is shrinking and eating itself to survive.
Facts speak for themselves. The most telling is the United States. The facts and trend implications are staggering.
Facts don't lie. Trends don't lie. From facts and trends you can make forecasts and the forecast is there is no recovery, it is only getting worse with no end in sight. Forget The Unemployment Rate, The Real Nightmare Is The EMPLOYMENT Rate
There are so many facts I could list it is hard to even begin choosing.
December's US job loss worst on record, personal bankruptcies up 32%, rail traffic worst since started collecting data, US sales taxes down, real US unemployment at 22%, record US credit drop, world shipping down, UK economy down -4.8% (sharpest decline since 1921) Germany down -5% (worst since WWII), Spain unemployment 20%, youth unemployment 40%, the list goes on and on. And the consequences...latest budget plan from California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger would force 200,000 children off low-cost medical insurance, end in-home care for 350,000 infirm and elderly citizens and slash income assistance to hundreds of thousands more
It is a "race to the bottom"
So what is the risk to Canada and Canadians?
Why should Canadians and my parents be concerned or even thinking Societies fail because they're unprepared, and will be in denial till it's too late.
To state the obvious, whatever happens in the US will affect Canada and Canada will follow.
The Harper government is following lock step with US policy.
The St.Louis federal reserve a few days ago admitted it would not be raising interest rates, this means Canada will not be raising interest rates and so the Canadian real estate bubble will continue to inflate and property values will continue to rise in Canada.
TrimTabs chairman went on CNBC a couple of days ago to say that based on their research, the rise in the stock market can only logically attributed to the federal government. The federal reserve has admitted it has been buying Mortgage backed securities and the federal government has taken over mortgage insurers fannie mae and freddie mac. This means that the federal government has effectively taken over the mortgage market and has been buying stock in public companies.
What does this mean? The government is taking over economies and its debt slaves, people.
The US federal government has to roll over some 2 trillion in debt as well as issue some 1.6 trillion in new debt in 2010. It has already been determined that the federal reserve bought 80% of US treasuries in 2009 and funded 91% of the US deficit for fiscal year 2009, so what are they going to do for 2010? Go after pensions. Well laid out on dailykos the next source of funds will be pension plans.
What else is worrisome? Devaluation. North Korea and Venezuela have both devalued their currencies and Argentina is in the midst of a constitutional crisis. Who cares? Maybe there is no need to be alarmed. But what this does say is how easily it can be done, at the stroke of a pen.
So what is my point? The US and world economy is in a downward death spiral with no end in sight other than a horrific crash. The crash could come in many different forms, a currency crisis, a default, a false flag event, a real event, there are many options but a crash is inevitable and based on the facts indisputable. There is no way out.
When will the crash occur? Who knows, but I think it may be over by 2014 when the Health Care bill is to take effect. For now the game is "extend and pretend."
Glenn Beck of FoxNews, the master of controlled opposition, spent almost the entire week of Jan4-7 detailing this out to his audience, granted with a lot of hyperbole, but the facts were accurate.
Unfortunately my parents don't watch or listen to either me or Glenn Beck. They will only believe it when it happens.
Societies fail because they're unprepared, and will be in denial till it's too late.
"There is only one way forward. Your own path" - Garth Turner