"The probability of a crisis will build during 2010. Although it might seem natural to think that the probability of a dire scenario falls over time, as more quarters of growth are recorded, in fact the opposite is true. The main reason why is that, faced with resistance to a more fundamentals shift, currently, policymakers are trying to recreate the “old” world, which was clearly unsustainable in a number of respects, such as in its reliance on “rich” consumers to spend and “poor” ones to save. The longer that that continues the higher the probability of a train crash."
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